FURTHER ON THE FRENCH 'MALAISE'
As I pointed out in a previous post, we've been hearing a lot lately about the French 'malaise.' Since few things annoy me more than a media campaign obviously aimed at manufacturing a political climate conducive to neoliberal reformism, I decided to look at the most recent Eurobarometer survey, no. 61, which was conducted in February-March 2004, just to see for myself how glum the French really are.
The survey of 1,019 individuals demonstrates that though on the pessimistic side of the opinion spectrum, the French are by no means the most pessimistic. Only 13% of the French - two percent below the EU-15 average of 15% - expected 'life in general' to get worse in the next twelve months, a figure that was exceeded by the Dutch (14%), the Austrians (15%), the Germans (27%) and the Portuguese (35%). They were much more pessimistic when it came to the economic situation in France, with 43% saying that they expected it to get worse, but this was the EU-15 average. Those who were even more pessimistic (about their own countries) were the the Dutch (49%), the Italians (52%), the Germans (57%) and the Portuguese (59%).
The French were a little more pessimistic when it came to the employment situation in their own country, with 49% saying that they expected it to get worse, but this was only one percentage point above the EU-15 average and exactly the same as the Italians and the Austrians. Those who were most pessimistic about the employment situation in their own countries were the Belgians (52%), Luxemburgers (57%), the Dutch (61%), the Germans (66%) and the Portuguese (68%). So although the French are clearly none too optimistic, the Dutch, the Italians, the Germans and the Portuguese are all significantly more pessimistic about things economic than the French - one has to wonder why no one is yet talking about the Dutch malaise, the Italian malaise or the Portuguese malaise.
Oddly, these figures coexist with a strange degree of confidence in their own personal wellbeing. While nearly half the French are pessimistic when it comes to the economic and employment outlook in France, they are definitely optimistic when it comes to their own household situation. No fewer than 76% expect their situation to stay the same or to improve. Those expecting it to improve actually outweigh the pessimists by 27% to 20%, leaving half the country of the view that things will stay the same. The French are even more optimistic about their 'personal job situation.' No fewer than 80% expect their situation to stay the same or to improve. Those expecting it to improve actually outweigh the pessimists by 24% to 9%, leaving a substantial majority (56%) of the opinion that things will stay the same.
Perhaps the best way to understand the French mentality at present is to examine the responses to the question asking respondents to compare life five years ago with life now and what they expect five years from now. In terms of the last five years, the results are wholly indecisive. One-third say things have grown worse, one-third say they have stayed the same, and one-third say they have improved. This result was virtually identical to the result for the EU-15, meaning that the French are no more pessimistic than Europeans generally. It is almost exactly the same figure as for the Italians, about whose malaise we hear precisely nothing.
As for the next five years, the French expect their degree of 'life satisfaction' to improve dramatically. A surprising 81% of the French expect their lives to stay the same or to improve in that period. Those expecting it to improve dramatically outnumber the pessimists by 44% to 15%, making it abundantly clear that even in France, optimism rules. In terms of the proportion of the population expecting life to get better in the next five years, the French were firmly planted among the optimistic half of the EU-15.
Although we are told that the core of the French 'malaise' is concern about unemployment, the French do not appear to be inordinately concerned about it. While 58% of respondents identified it as the EU's major problem at the moment, which was well above the 44% average for the EU-15, that figure was exceeded by the Germans (64%), the Finns (64%), the Portuguese (66%) and the Greeks (75%).
To sum up, although the French are a little on the pessimistic side, it would be a gross distortion to suggest that they have descended into national depression. Such expressions of pessimism also need to be balanced by the fact that, when they are asked to reflect on their personal lives, the French are substantially more optimistic, and when it comes to the next five years, very optimistic indeed. It is hard to think of people who are generally quite positive about their personal employment, their household situation, and very optimistic about the next five years as suffering from a collective malaise.
The only country for which the term 'malaise' would seem appropriate would be Germany where, virtually alone out of the EU, pessimists outnumbered the optimists (31% to 18%) on the question of the next five years. Clearly, relatively few people in Germany expect Chancellor Schroeder's draconian reform package, Hartz IV, to usher in a new era of good times. There would therefore seem to be much stronger case for the existence of a German malaise than a French one.
The survey of 1,019 individuals demonstrates that though on the pessimistic side of the opinion spectrum, the French are by no means the most pessimistic. Only 13% of the French - two percent below the EU-15 average of 15% - expected 'life in general' to get worse in the next twelve months, a figure that was exceeded by the Dutch (14%), the Austrians (15%), the Germans (27%) and the Portuguese (35%). They were much more pessimistic when it came to the economic situation in France, with 43% saying that they expected it to get worse, but this was the EU-15 average. Those who were even more pessimistic (about their own countries) were the the Dutch (49%), the Italians (52%), the Germans (57%) and the Portuguese (59%).
The French were a little more pessimistic when it came to the employment situation in their own country, with 49% saying that they expected it to get worse, but this was only one percentage point above the EU-15 average and exactly the same as the Italians and the Austrians. Those who were most pessimistic about the employment situation in their own countries were the Belgians (52%), Luxemburgers (57%), the Dutch (61%), the Germans (66%) and the Portuguese (68%). So although the French are clearly none too optimistic, the Dutch, the Italians, the Germans and the Portuguese are all significantly more pessimistic about things economic than the French - one has to wonder why no one is yet talking about the Dutch malaise, the Italian malaise or the Portuguese malaise.
Oddly, these figures coexist with a strange degree of confidence in their own personal wellbeing. While nearly half the French are pessimistic when it comes to the economic and employment outlook in France, they are definitely optimistic when it comes to their own household situation. No fewer than 76% expect their situation to stay the same or to improve. Those expecting it to improve actually outweigh the pessimists by 27% to 20%, leaving half the country of the view that things will stay the same. The French are even more optimistic about their 'personal job situation.' No fewer than 80% expect their situation to stay the same or to improve. Those expecting it to improve actually outweigh the pessimists by 24% to 9%, leaving a substantial majority (56%) of the opinion that things will stay the same.
Perhaps the best way to understand the French mentality at present is to examine the responses to the question asking respondents to compare life five years ago with life now and what they expect five years from now. In terms of the last five years, the results are wholly indecisive. One-third say things have grown worse, one-third say they have stayed the same, and one-third say they have improved. This result was virtually identical to the result for the EU-15, meaning that the French are no more pessimistic than Europeans generally. It is almost exactly the same figure as for the Italians, about whose malaise we hear precisely nothing.
As for the next five years, the French expect their degree of 'life satisfaction' to improve dramatically. A surprising 81% of the French expect their lives to stay the same or to improve in that period. Those expecting it to improve dramatically outnumber the pessimists by 44% to 15%, making it abundantly clear that even in France, optimism rules. In terms of the proportion of the population expecting life to get better in the next five years, the French were firmly planted among the optimistic half of the EU-15.
Although we are told that the core of the French 'malaise' is concern about unemployment, the French do not appear to be inordinately concerned about it. While 58% of respondents identified it as the EU's major problem at the moment, which was well above the 44% average for the EU-15, that figure was exceeded by the Germans (64%), the Finns (64%), the Portuguese (66%) and the Greeks (75%).
To sum up, although the French are a little on the pessimistic side, it would be a gross distortion to suggest that they have descended into national depression. Such expressions of pessimism also need to be balanced by the fact that, when they are asked to reflect on their personal lives, the French are substantially more optimistic, and when it comes to the next five years, very optimistic indeed. It is hard to think of people who are generally quite positive about their personal employment, their household situation, and very optimistic about the next five years as suffering from a collective malaise.
The only country for which the term 'malaise' would seem appropriate would be Germany where, virtually alone out of the EU, pessimists outnumbered the optimists (31% to 18%) on the question of the next five years. Clearly, relatively few people in Germany expect Chancellor Schroeder's draconian reform package, Hartz IV, to usher in a new era of good times. There would therefore seem to be much stronger case for the existence of a German malaise than a French one.
