So the Country prefers lie-ing Liberals, only in Ontario, eh
cheers :) majere
oh yea, the NDP really don't count.
snipped>
A new poll conducted for CanWest/Global by Ipsos-Reid while the defection of Conservative Belinda Stronach to Paul Martin's Liberal cabinet was taking place, and leading up to the eve of the Federal budget confidence vote, indicates that if an election were held today 34% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals (up 7 points), 28% for the Conservatives (down 3 points), 17% for the NDP (down 2 points), and 6% for the Green Party (unchanged).
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois continues to dominate with 54% (down 2
points) decided vote support - leading the Liberals (24%, up 9 points)
by 30-points.
As
for the budget vote scenarios and fall-out, a majority of Canadians
want even a narrow budget confidence vote to decide the fate of the
government, specifically:
•"If the government loses by one or two votes" - 54% feel it would be necessary to have an immediate election;
•"If
the opposition and government tie the vote, and the tie is broken in
favour of the government by the Speaker of the house, who is a Liberal"
- 60% feel it would be acceptable for the Liberals to remain in power;
and
•"If the government wins by one or two votes" - 68% feel it would be acceptable if the Liberals remain in power.
When
asked whom they blame most for the problems we're having in Parliament
these days, nearly half of Canadians (46%) point to "Paul Martin and
the Liberal Party" while only 32% point to the "opposition parties lead
by Stephen Harper and Gilles Ducceppe".
And most Canadians
(57%) are of the opinion that the "Liberal party does not deserve to be
re-elected and it's time for another political party to be given a
chance to govern the country" (down 8 points from the 65% who said this
in an April 8-10th, 2005 survey). This compares with 37% who believe
the Liberals deserve to be re-elected under the leadership of Paul
Martin (up 7 points).
But Canadians are divided as to whether
the next election will clear the air and get the government in Ottawa
back on track: Forty-six percent are confident it will compared to 52%
who don't think so.
The National Vote…
According to
the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held
today, 34% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals
(up 7 points), 28% for the Conservatives (down 3 points), 17% for the
NDP (down 2 points), and 6% for the Green Party (unchanged).
In
Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 54% support (down 2 points) and now
holds a 30-point lead over the Liberals (24%, up 9 points).
Among
all Canadians, 12% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote
for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.
Regional Vote Highlights…
•In
Ontario, the Liberals are up 14-points and now lead with 46% vote
support, followed by the Conservatives (31%, down 3 points), the NDP
(17%, down 5 points), and the Green Party (5%, down 3 points).
•In
Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois now sit at 54% (down 2 points), as the
Liberals (24%, up 9 points) trail distantly. The NDP (9%, down 2
points), the Conservatives (7%, down 3 points), and the Green Party
(4%, unchanged) are battling for positions further down.
•In
British Columbia, the Conservatives (31%, unchanged) and the Liberals
(30%, down 2 points) are virtually tied, while the NDP (25%, up 2
points) trails closely - the Green Party attracts 14% support (up 2
points).
•In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 48% of
decided votes (down 11 points), as the NDP (23%, up 12 points) slides
into second spot and the Liberals (20%, down 4 points) fall to third.
The Green Party sits at 7% support (up 2 points).
•In
Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives are down 12 points but continue
to lead with 40% of the decided vote, followed by the Liberals (31%, up
10 points), the NDP (26%, up 3 points), and the Green Party (3%, up 2
points).
•In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (41%, up 7
points) and the Liberals (38%, up 3 points) are in a tightly contested
race, as the NDP (20%, down 7 points) trails - the Green Party garners
1% of the decided vote (up 1 point).
As part of the survey,
Canadians were asked to speculate on three potential scenarios that may
emerge from the vote of confidence that will be held in Parliament this
Thursday and offer their opinions about what they would consider to be
an appropriate outcome for each of these scenarios.
The survey
results show that a majority of Canadians want even a narrow budget
confidence vote to decide the fate of the government, specifically:
•"If
the government loses by one or two votes" - 54% feel it would be
necessary to have an immediate election (42% believe it would be
acceptable for the Liberals to remain in power);
•"If the
opposition and government tie the vote, and the tie is broken in favour
of the government by the Speaker of the house, who is a Liberal" - 60%
feel it would be acceptable for the Liberals to remain in power (36%
feel it would be necessary to have an immediate election); and
•"If
the government wins by one or two votes" - 68% feel it would be
acceptable if the Liberals remain in power (29% feel an immediate
election would be necessary).
Plurality Of Canadians (46%) Blame Paul Martin And The Liberal Party For Problems In Ottawa...
When
asked whom they blame most for the problems we're having in Parliament
these days, nearly half of Canadians (46%) point to "Paul Martin and
the Liberal Party". Thirty-two percent point to the "opposition parties
lead by Stephen Harper and Gilles Ducceppe", and only 2% point to "Jack
Layton and the NDP".
Among remaining Canadians, 10% say they blame "all" of these groups, 6% blame "none", and a further 5% "don't know".
•Residents
of Quebec (55%) are the most likely to blame Paul Martin and the
Liberal Party, followed by residents of Alberta (50%), and British
Columbia (44%).
•Residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%) are
the most likely to blame the opposition parties of Gilles Duceppe and
Stephen Harper, followed by residents of Ontario (35%), and Atlantic
Canada (34%).
And Most (57%) Don't Believe The Grits Deserve To Be Re-Elected…
Most
Canadians (57%) are of the opinion that the "Liberal party does not
deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another political party to
be given a chance to govern the country" - down 8 points from the 65%
who said this in an April 8-10th, 2005 survey.
Thirty-seven
percent of respondents believe the Liberals do deserve to be re-elected
under the leadership of Paul Martin - up 7 points from this question's
last sounding.
In the regions:
•Residents of Alberta
(70%, down 4 points) are the most likely to believe it's time for a
change in the ruling government, followed by residents of Quebec (69%,
down 2 points), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%, down 3 points).
•Residents
of Ontario (44%, up 7 points) are the most likely to believe the
Liberal party deserves to be re-elected, followed by residents of
Atlantic Canada (43%, up 7 points), and British Columbia (42%, up 16
points).
Canadians Divided On Whether Or Not An Election Will Clear the Air…
Canadians
are divided in their opinions after being read the statement "I'm
confident that the next election will clear the air and get the
government in Ottawa back on track": Forty-six percent agree with this
statement (17% strongly/29% somewhat) and 52% disagree (26%
strongly/25% somewhat). The remaining 3% of Canadians "don't know".
•Residents
of Alberta (54%) are the most likely to agree with this statement,
followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (50%), and Quebec (50%).
•Residents of British Columbia (59%) are the most likely to
disagree with this statement, followed by residents of Ontario (55%),
and Quebec and Atlantic Canada (both at 48%).
