http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful Gauss, Turing, Moore, Feynman, Curie, Skinner, Wolfram, Kurzweil Shaw People who change the world. Education Psychology, Genetics, Computers, Salesmen Fuzzy Chances Mathematics en Thoughtful Thoughtful Tue, 18 Oct 2005 03:28:39 +0200 daily 1 The effect of the baby boomer aging is going to have a big effect on the U.S.  economy. I read a site called  www.safeseniorsystems.com which says that the number of seniors in the U.S is now  30 million and will be 60 million  by 2025. This  means that there will be a million additional seniors every year.   Now seniors make up 10% of the population;  in 2025 they will then make up  around 19%. Who will care of them? This will have significant impact on the care of these people. Why not look at the site and tell me what you think. How will you look after your parents? If you are a older person how would you like to live when you get older? On a related topic, there is talk that General Motors may go bankrupt because of the cost of retirement benefits,  especially health care. I saw the figure of $4 billion per year in healthcare benefits paid to 1 million retirees.  This is a lot of money. ... Tue, 18 Oct 2005 03:28:39 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/The-baby-boom-and-the-aging-population./35/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/The-baby-boom-and-the-aging-population./35/ The purpose of this post is to let people think of the practical aspects of emptying a small city,  of say one million people. (If there is a train then this can be used also, but since the U.S. is a car country. I will use roads for the evacuation.) Lets think about what you need.  A road and transport. Assume the goal is to move people 400 miles away.  If you can get the traffic to move at 50 miles an hour.  This journey  means  driving  for 8 hours to reach the destination. If a car is used and it has 4 people then assuming the cars are spaced 2 seconds apart, you will have 2000 cars passing a post in the road each hour. So you can  move (2000 x 4 =) 8000 people out of the city on one lane every hour. To evacuate a city with a million by car and assuming you have 10 lanes leading out of the city you will have to move 10 x 8000  = 80,000 people per hour.   So in 10 hours you can move out 800,000 people... Sun, 02 Oct 2005 04:43:32 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Evacuation-of-a-City-like-New-Orleans/34/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Evacuation-of-a-City-like-New-Orleans/34/ You might want to read my original post on 3 March 2005.   The suggestions are still valid. This latest storm has given the opportunity to fix it faster. The right action at the wrong time is the wrong action. I am still disappointed that the many  people in American industry who are very  brilliant and skilled have not been given the opportunity to solve the problems - stopping the water and draining the city and restoring the services. There are many amazing  engineering feats in the U.S. In fact the U.S. is know for its success in creating companies the do tasks well.   Why not get then to apply their skills. I am reminded of the  building of the atomic  bomb. This was an wonderful combination of science,  engineering and the army. In fact I think that the  clever trick was that the  army was able to create an system that got the best  work from the scientists whose  need to have free... Tue, 27 Sep 2005 18:38:29 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/New-Orleans-Flooding-by-Rita-Ask-the-Experts/33/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/New-Orleans-Flooding-by-Rita-Ask-the-Experts/33/ A quote from my mother who was a teacher. It means rhar if you praise a person that the will age well. i.e. 60 years will seem to be only 50 years.old. I have become more  aware of the problems that parents cause their children by not praising  often enought them  and encouraging them when they do something well. A child who is praised will grow up to be a credit to you. Before you criticise your child, see if you can express it in a positive way. "John! That was a good attempt!  Let me show you how  to do it even better."   -  may be more effective than "No John! That is wrong!" Sometimes I have a disagreement with my children. I have found that sentence: "At least one of us is wrong!" is very useful. Especially since my child - while very clever is occasionally  misinformed  and has to  be guided.   However, I do tell him that he is brilliant - which he is. The world is not always... Sun, 18 Sep 2005 04:20:51 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Praise-praise-makes-60-50/32/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Praise-praise-makes-60-50/32/ I have been deeply saddened by the loss of my friend. So I am now thinking of how to get the most important tasks accomplished. Book:  A great book is "First Things First" by   Stephen R. Covey .    This is an excellent book to help you balance your life. He has this great idea that all tasks are can be scored on two scales. The scales are:  Urgent    -------------  Not Urgent and              Important -------------  Unimportant. Take a while and list that things that you are planning to do in the next week or month. Next think about why you are doing each activity and score them on these scales. You may find that some of the tasks you are doing are not really important and others are not urgent.   This analysis will help you to make sure that you are doing the talks you really think should be done.   The urgent and... Fri, 16 Sep 2005 05:13:56 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Your-Life-and-Goals-it-is-later-than-you-think./31/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Your-Life-and-Goals-it-is-later-than-you-think./31/ A dear friend died the other night. She should not have died. She had a hard life and was badly treated by many. She was abused by people who will never be punished for their actions. A group of employees set out to cause her destruction. One was the leader;  others  were willing participants.   They thought  it fun to bully and abuse her.   Ultimately they killed her. In a just society this would not have happened. This society I live in,  has a veneer of caring; but it is  a cruel and dishonest society. The leaders  understand the meaning of deniability.   The talk of ethics, but have none. They commit crimes and others participate or look the other way. I tried to protect her and  help her - I did not succeed. It is sad for her children.   She loved them very much. ---------------------------------------------- I once caught my Aunt paying  a bill - when asked she... Fri, 09 Sep 2005 04:39:19 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/I-lost-a-friend-it-should-not-have-happened/30/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/I-lost-a-friend-it-should-not-have-happened/30/ The Right Action at the wrong Time is the Wrong Action. See what you would like to do and how you can set about doing it. Don't regret in future years that you should have done something BUT you did not. Plan the steps now.                Write them down. Save the plan. Review the plan tomorrow. The text below is a worthwhile thought.     Martin Niemoeller's message, in its true form, carries a powerful moral impact.  Telling the story and drawing the lessees of the SHOAH are weakened, not strengthened, when carelessness or self-indulgence permits a corrupted text to be widely disseminated.  The true sequence, which culminates the Nazi genocide of the Jews, is both literally and morally stronger than the corrupt forms that are becoming now widespread: First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out--     because I was not a... Wed, 07 Sep 2005 21:45:00 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/How-can-you-make-a-difference./29/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/How-can-you-make-a-difference./29/ How to position the I-beams. 1. I have been thinking that it is important to position the I-beams accurately. One solution is to take a  wooden pole and stick in  the place you want the I-beam.  Attach a laser pointer to it and point it so that the laser beam points straight up. On the helicopter, mount a white board  by the hoist so that the laser  spot will be seen on the board when the I-beam is over the marker in the ground. In this way the I-beam operator will know when to drop the I-beam. (One could mount  a sensor  in the white board so which would signal when  the helicopter is stationary over the target for a few seconds and automatically release  the I-beam.) It you hit the pole it will not matter as the wood will splinter. but you will get very close to the target. 2.  The levees should get inspected to ensure that new storms will not cause flooding.  Possible the levee should be raised  to... Wed, 07 Sep 2005 01:35:02 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/New-Orleans-levees-Fixing-it-fast./28/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/New-Orleans-levees-Fixing-it-fast./28/ This is terrible disaster.   The scene of death and destruction on the BBC news make the US appear to be a third world country.   I know that the US has the capability to solve the problem. However,  it is important to act quickly. The US is renowned as the place where "great  things happen fast". Now is the time to show what they can do. The measure of their success  is the  number of deaths  and the amount of damage. See the bottom of this article  for other measures. IT IS TIME TO ACT! Here are the steps required 1.    Getting Food Water,  Supplies and Medical Aid  to the People.   Supply all the  needed food and material to the people stranded.  This requires that the food/water/medical aid be transported to the area. 1.1. Air Transport.    The US Airforce have the equipment to  transport the supplies by air. 1.2. Water Transport.... Sat, 03 Sep 2005 23:06:41 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/New-Orleans-Disaster-Fixing-quickly-Days/27/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/New-Orleans-Disaster-Fixing-quickly-Days/27/ Then the first computers were built they used a lot of power 17kWatt  ( 17000Watts).   This is about the power of 10 homes. The electrical power used by a modern computer is under 250W ( including the monitor.)  The modern computer operates about 1,000,000 times faster (about 1 Gig operations per second today, compared to 3000 operations per second, 50 years ago.) What took a year to compute 50 years ago wer can do in  30 seconds!  There are 200 million PCs bought every year. Each year they are about 30% more powerful than those of the previous year.  In the last 5 years there are about 1 billion PCs sold. When they   are running they   use 250 billion Watts. (Enough power for 250 million homes.) But that power replaces oil which would be needed  travel  or mailing documents around the world. It also lets us design new products that... Sun, 17 Jul 2005 07:48:21 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/The-Miracle-of-Computing/26/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/The-Miracle-of-Computing/26/ My recommendation  is the Kodak Easyshare Camera - they are very reasonable priced and  excellent value for money. I probable like the camera because I can see that it is an excellent example good engineering design and choices - so that the constomer has a camera that works well. The choice of features that Kodak make are excellent - the cameras  are an excellent example of good engineering design.   Some features are: The photos  are almost always excellent. That is because they have some excellent software that sets the camera value to the correct settings. The battery power is enough to allow many photos. The video + audio mode is useful for many casual movies. The camera automatically powers off it you don't use it for a while - the really clever part is that the delays chosen are such that they don't  annoy. I.e. it waits long enough before going to sleep.   The  camera is a great example  of the design choices that... Sat, 09 Jul 2005 20:27:03 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Kodak-Easyshare-Camera-good-photo-well-priced/25/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Kodak-Easyshare-Camera-good-photo-well-priced/25/ This is my proposal: Let consumers use the Web to   reward businesses that are honest  and provide good products that customers like,and discourage businesses from dishonest business practices by making  dishonest practices very expensive .   Tell your friends of good companies and also of bad companies.   This will rapidly   transfer money from the bad to the good and will further improve your society. The Web is a wonderful invention. I recently read of an abuse that wired.com carried out in attempting to compel their subscribers to renew. See:   techdirt.com Don't Renew Your Wired Subscription -- Debt Collectors Will Bang Down Your Door July 8th, 2005 http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20050708/1512247_F.shtml and http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/07/08/BUGF1DKKFM1.DTL This is my suggestion.   Tell me what you think! ... Sat, 09 Jul 2005 19:49:58 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Making-Honesty-in-Business-Pay./24/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Making-Honesty-in-Business-Pay./24/ Take  3 gm Vitamin C  and 400 iu Vitamin E Scientists Scramble to Destroy Flu Strain   - abcs news health http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=666630 Nearly 5,000 labs in 18 received vials from a U.S. company that supplies kits used for quality control tests. The germ, the 1957 H2N2 "Asian flu" strain, killed between 1 million and 4 million people. It has not been included in flu vaccines since 1968, and anyone born after that date has little or no immunity to it.     Vaccine mix-up ..    a big mistake. Potentially millions could die because of one error.    Imagine if a terrorist got some of this flu virus.   This reminds me of Three Mile Island - A valve was opened; the sensor reported that the value had opened. Unfortunately the rod attaching the activator to the actual flange had broken. So the operator got the message that the value... Wed, 13 Apr 2005 22:26:38 +0200 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Vitamin-gms-and-Vitamin-take-for-health-everyday/23/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Vitamin-gms-and-Vitamin-take-for-health-everyday/23/  Precise Human Thought (PHT) This is a way to describe how people think. By using this approach we can write down the logic that people use in coming to decisions. As a further benefit, this method allows one to include the conflicting thoughts that people have  and so can see how people  make different decisions depending of various factors.   Time pressure, or the effect of recent events that make certain stimulus more important, for example may get people to make different decisions. But first, an example: As any child knows safety lies in staying on the sidewalk ("path" in the United Kingdom). So Rule 1 is:  "Stay on the sidewalk". But there are exceptions to this rule. Rule 2 is  "Act to be safe and move away from fatal danger". Rule 3 is "If a object is getting larger quickly then it may be a threat". Rule 4 is  "If an object is moving sideways with respect to he background it will not collide with you" ... Fri, 25 Mar 2005 05:19:39 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Precise-Human-Thought-PHT-new-way-understanding-how/22/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Precise-Human-Thought-PHT-new-way-understanding-how/22/ This is a valuable skill as it lets them see that they can control their health by reading and arithmetic. It is the best example of cause and effect. It is also the best example of how mathematics and physics lets us pridict the future and change it to help us. Science is no more that understanding how the world works. Physics and mathematics are simple tools to help us get  results. Unless we can do simple arithmetic, computers will not be able to help us  understand the world. Note: For good english and excellent grasp of events read the economist.com.  Even it you feel the political view is not  to your liking, the numbers used are usually correct. The forecasts are often correct.  The authors often correctly forecast events that happen 6 to 24 months ahead. The style is simple and elegant.  (No, I have never written for them!) Tue, 22 Mar 2005 06:49:22 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Teaching-Children-to-read-food-labels/21/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Teaching-Children-to-read-food-labels/21/ Perhaps you don't think that being overweigh has any effect on you. Try this experiment. Take a backpack and put 3 soft   2 litre soft drink bottles in it. The bottles should be full. Now put the backpack on your back and carry it around for 3 hours. Then take it off and see how much lighter you feel! This is the equivalent of gaining and then losing  6 kgs ( 13 lbs). This simple experiment should let you see that losing weight will help you feel better. Read my earlier  post a Fighting Fit fighting fat for more information. The tools to become healthy again are a pen and paper and a weighing scales. You may find that it helps to switch in a number of small ways:- Try halving the amount of dressing you put on your salad ( or better yet, eat it plain. (I recently had a salad and was about to put dressing on it. It was a chicken salad and was 170 calories. However the dressing was another 250 calories and was mostly fat.  So simply not... Tue, 22 Mar 2005 06:38:14 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Fighting-Fat-Fighting-Fit-Act-Measure-Log-Review/20/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Fighting-Fat-Fighting-Fit-Act-Measure-Log-Review/20/ This entry is short as I am very busy at present. From time to time I cannot sleep at night - this happens when there is alot on my mind.    I trak how many hours I sleep and add the last 7 nights together. When some night I may only get 4 hours sleep, I do not worry as long as mu 7 night total is over 34 hours.  Usually is it about  about 45 hours. I find that this is a good was to deal with changing sleep patterns ans not be concerned.   It you don't sleep  well for a night or two,using this sum of 7 days can tell you if you need to do anything about it. Usually you are more tired by the third night ans so you get the sleep you require.  Eating some cheese or a slice of  turkey can solve the problem. Melatonin tablets that can help.  valerian root is another herb that can help. Kava Kava is also helpful - if has been baned but appears to work  well.   Like many substances Kava Kava... Sun, 13 Feb 2005 01:04:18 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Sleeping/19/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Sleeping/19/ Arithmetic and health   Myths   There is no fat virus. Thee is no secret force that fills you full of food as you sleep. This are arithmetic and the law of conservation of mass.   Reality Fat is the result of consistently taking in more calories than you use. If you eat an extra slice of toast and butter every day, you will gain about 10 lbs in a year.   A slice of toast with butter has about 100 calories. Eating this every day for a year you take in 365 x 100 = 36,500 calories. One lb of fat is 3600 calories. 10 x 3,600 is 36,000.     So this agrees with the result.   So why are you fat. ( If you are not fat you don't need to read this.)   One reason may be that you are eating food that is missing the vitamins that you need.    So you body sends you the message eat more.   ... Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:50:07 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Fighting-Fat-Fighting-Fit./18/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Fighting-Fat-Fighting-Fit./18/ Knowledge is valuable. My  final article on  the Tsunami and how to save lives. The cheapest solution is to put  notices in all coastal areas in hotels, bars, beaches showing the warning signs. This is most cost effective.  If the notices are also put in the radio/TV stations, then they can broadcast the warnings also. They can then also  recognise the signs of the Tsunami.  Such actions would have probable saved most of the lives lost. I notice that the warning sign is -  the beach that is normally covered by water is uncovered as the sea recedes quickly. If you run away from the beach when you see then and get to high ground you will survive. The following articles on the net are most instructive:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake Case 1 ------ This is from Reuters account of Tilly Smith's story:- ... had studied tsunamis in geography class at school and recognised the warning sign of... Tue, 11 Jan 2005 18:04:15 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Knowledge-valuable-Tsunami-how-save-lives/17/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Knowledge-valuable-Tsunami-how-save-lives/17/ The awful effects of the Tsunami have set me thinking.  I am sharing my thoughtson how to stop this terrible loss of life from happening again. We already have the tools and the information.   Here is how do it. I call it IMPACT. The sequence of events is listed below: Information  Propagation   Attention    Communication  Traffic  Status Here is a description of each step. Information   - gather the reports from the seismic centres around the world. Propagation   - communicate the information to the central reporting systems. Attention    -  identify and inform the TV/radio stations nearest the Tsunami so they can give the  most urgent warning. Communication  - The people are warned of the approaching Tsunami. and the expected arrival time. Traffic  -   The traffic movement - walk or drive out of the danger zone  (1 km area from... Tue, 04 Jan 2005 18:21:52 +0100 http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Tsunami-Impact-how-to-save-lives./16/ http://www.blogigo.co.uk/Thoughtful/Tsunami-Impact-how-to-save-lives./16/