Musings

You might want to read my original post on 3 March 2005.  
The suggestions are still valid.
This latest storm has given the opportunity to fix it faster.

The right action at the wrong time is the wrong action.

I am still disappointed that the many  people in American industry who are very  brilliant and skilled have not been given the opportunity to solve the problems - stopping the water and draining the city and restoring the services.

There are many amazing  engineering feats in the U.S.
In fact the U.S. is know for its success in creating companies the do
tasks well.   Why not get then to apply their skills.

I am reminded of the  building of the atomic  bomb. This
was an wonderful combination of science,  engineering and the army.
In fact I think that the  clever trick was that the  army was able to
create an system that got the best  work from the scientists whose
 need to have free communication had to let florish while meeting the secrecy needs
of  the war.
 
I am sure that
rescueing the city from the floods could be done quickly
if the government  wanted it to happen.

Mood: Happy.
Listening to: Pin Ball Wizard by The Who

A quote from my mother who was a teacher.
It means rhar if you praise a person that the will age well. i.e. 60 years
will seem to be only 50 years.old.

I have become more  aware of the problems that parents cause their children by not praising  often enought them
 and encouraging them when they do something well.

A child who is praised will grow up to be a credit to you.

Before you criticise your child, see if you can express it in a positive
way.

"John! That was a good attempt!  Let me show you how  to do it even better."   -  may be more effective than "No John! That is wrong!"

Sometimes I have a disagreement with my children.

I have found that sentence: "At least one of us is wrong!" is very useful.

Especially since my child - while very clever is occasionally  misinformed  and has to  be guided.   However, I do tell him that he is brilliant - which he is.

The world is not always encouraging of youth.

Try your best.   But also be realistic.   The main goal is to do your best
and have fun.

Sometimes it is good to put yourself in the other person's shoes. Then you can  often see why they have a different opinion.

This exercise will also help you deal with others.  They may not have had all the experiences (good and bad!) which you have had.

Go away now and praise the next person you see. Pick one thing that you like about them.

Does anyone  know how to contact Steve Jobs?

Mood: Planning my future.
Listening to: Imagine

I have been deeply saddened by the loss of my friend.

So I am now thinking of how to get the most important tasks accomplished.


Book:  A great book is "First Things First" by   Stephen R. Covey.
  
This is an excellent book to help you balance your life.
He has this great idea that all tasks are can be scored on two scales.

The scales are:  Urgent    -------------  Not Urgent

and              Important -------------  Unimportant.


Take a while and list that things that you are planning to do in the next week or month.

Next think about why you are doing each activity and score them on these scales.

You may find that some of the tasks you are doing are not really important and others are not urgent.  

This analysis will help you to make sure that you are doing the talks you really think should be done.   The urgent and not urgent scale  lets you postpone some tasks  so that you get more important tasks done first.


Time:
The right action at the wrong time is the wrong action.


Perhaps you should see you friend - maybe they will not be
there if you postpone it.

Mood: Very Sad

A dear friend died the other night.

She should not have died.

She had a hard life and was badly treated by many.

She was abused by people who will never be punished for their actions.
A group of employees set out to cause her destruction.
One was the leader;  others  were willing participants.   They thought  it fun to bully and abuse her.   Ultimately they killed her.

In a just society this would not have happened.
This society I live in,  has a veneer of caring; but it is  a cruel and
dishonest society.

The leaders  understand the meaning of deniability.
 
The talk of ethics, but have none.

They commit crimes and others participate or look the other way.

I tried to protect her and  help her - I did not succeed.

It is sad for her children.   She loved them very much.



----------------------------------------------
I once caught my Aunt paying  a bill - when asked she explained
that  she and the shopkeeper shared the cost of the  purchases
made by a person in the village who was poor.

Had I not been there I would never have know about these acts of
kindness.

It is time to acknowledge it now.

Life must go on.

Look around and see who you would like to thank before you die.

Now it now.

You never know how much time you have.

[The previous post was written  after she had
died but before I was told about it.
I wonder if I already knew -  in some unexplainable way.]

Put your effort into helping some who is living.
 
Grieve and move on - easier said then done.

Mood: Hopeful

The Right Action at the wrong Time is the Wrong Action.

See what you would like to do and how you can set about doing it.

Don't regret in future years that you should have done something
BUT you did not.

Plan the steps now.                Write them down.

Save the plan.

Review the plan tomorrow.

The text below is a worthwhile thought.


    Martin Niemoeller's message, in its true form, carries a powerful moral impact.  Telling the story and drawing the lessees of the SHOAH are weakened, not strengthened, when carelessness or self-indulgence permits a corrupted text to be widely disseminated.  The true sequence, which culminates the Nazi genocide of the Jews, is both literally and morally stronger than the corrupt forms that are becoming now widespread:

First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out--
    because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out--
    because I was not a socialist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out--
    because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
    because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me--
    and there was no one left to speak out for me.

-   byMartin Niemoeller




    First, who was Martin Niemoeller?  Niemoeller was one of the most respected Protestant leaders in Germany.  After a signal career as a young man, a decorated U-Boat captain in the First World War, he became an activated Christian.  In 1933, when he became the most high profile of Hitler's Christian opponents, he was in charge of a prestigious suburban parish in Berlin-Dahlem.

    Niemoeller was a leader in the mobilization of the Pastors' Emergency League, in the Synod that denounced the abuses of the dictatorship in the famous "Six Articles of Barmen," and in other visible joint actions and sermons that finally led to his arrest on 1 July 1937.  There were then a few honest judges still functioning in Germany, and when the court let him go with a slap on the wrist Hitler personally ordered his incarceration.  Niemoeller was in concentration camp, including long periods of solitary confinement, until the end of the war.

Mood: Sad
Listening to: Imagine

How to position the I-beams.

1.
I have been thinking that it is important to position the I-beams accurately.


One solution is to take a  wooden pole and stick in  the place you want the I-beam.
 Attach a laser pointer to it and point it so that the laser beam points straight up.
On the helicopter, mount a white board  by the hoist so that the laser  spot
will be seen on the board when the I-beam is over the marker in the ground.
In this way the I-beam operator will know when to drop the I-beam.
(One could mount  a sensor  in the white board so which would signal when
 the helicopter is stationary over the target for a few seconds and automatically release  the I-beam.)
It you hit the pole it will not matter as the wood will splinter. but you will get very close to the target.


2.  The levees should get inspected to ensure that new storms will
not cause flooding.  Possible the levee should be raised  to 12 feet about the
current water level.

Mood: Somber
Listening to: A Fugue by J. C Bach

This is terrible disaster.   The scene of death and destruction on the BBC news make the US appear to be a third world country.   I know that the US has the capability to solve the problem. However,  it is important to act quickly.

The US is renowned as the place where "great  things happen fast".

Now is the time to show what they can do.

The measure of their success  is the  number of deaths  and the amount of damage.

See the bottom of this article  for other measures.

IT IS TIME TO ACT!

Here are the steps required

1.    Getting Food Water,  Supplies and Medical Aid  to the People.

  Supply all the  needed food and material to the people stranded.
 This requires that the food/water/medical aid be transported to the area.

1.1. Air Transport.
   The US Airforce have the equipment to  transport the supplies by air.

1.2. Water Transport.
 There are plenty of  boats of all sizes that can be used to  move the supplies to the stranded  people.
 
1.3  Transportation Organization
         Federal Express have the best logistics organization in the world. They have the organizational ability to ship  millions
         of packages around the world ( in 36 hours of less).

        I am sure that they could have all the supplies delivered in 48 hours.  They just have to be asked.



2.  Stopping the Flooding.

To deal with the flooding you have to do the following:

2.1 Seal the breaches.
2.2 Pump out the water.

3.Health Issues.
4. Risks
5. Preventing this from happening again.
6. Measuring Success.




The details.

Let's take each part in turn.

The total length of the breaches is less  under  1000 feet.

2.1  Create a Barrier
  The first task is  to create a barrier. The quickest way to  create a barrier  is to make a barrier of I-beams at 10 feet spacing and then put steel plates,  standing on edge,  against these I-beams to form a wall.  The I-beams will keep the plates from  moving  due to the pressure of the water.

2.1.1 Placing the I-beams.
Using a helicopter, take a 30 ft.  I-beam and drop it, like a spike, where   the breaches have occurred.  
By adjusting the height from which you drop the I-beam, you can control how deep the I-beam penetrates into the ground .
My guess is that the correct  drop height is approximately  100 ft.   However, dropping  a few I-beams will allow the optimum  height  to be determined quickly.

This is an opportunity for some company to show what wonderful engineering then can do.

Think of  advertising potential!  The  world-wide  news coverage and associated advertising and goodwill that this work will generate will be  priceless!
 
The goal is to have about  15 feet  of the I-beam sticking up above the water level.
this will ensure that it is high enough  for protect from  future storms. One can add more steel plates, where required,  to make a barrier of 20 feet or more later on, when this  immediately disaster has
been addressed.

By spacing these I-beams 10 feet  apart,  one can make line of I-beams which jut out of the water.  The will look from afaw like toothpicks on a watery beach.

2.1.2  Placing the Steel Plates.
Next, take steel plates, 10 feet by 20 feet, and lower them into the water so that when the plates are stood on edge   the water pushes  the plates  against the I-beams.   This will provide a quick barrier that will reduce the flow of water dramatically.
Alternatively,  the steel plates may  dropped from 10 ft  so they will sink into the ground stopping leakage under the plates.

2.1.3 Stopping the leaks with smaller malleable plates.
To handle the leaks one can take  steel plates of 1/4 - 1/16 inch and place them to cover the spaces where the larger plate overlap. The water pressure will 'stick the plates over the leaks'.  This will further reduce the flow.

2.1.4  Flexible cloth  - to seal the cracks.
Take Tyvek ( or fiberglass/carbon fibre or some strong flexible fabric) sheets and lay them over the other sheets to stop the  flow completely. Once again, they are placed on the water side so  the water pressure forces the material  into the holes to seal it.

Epoxy or   silicone or glue can be place on the  sheets before they are placed   to complete the seal.

2.1.5 Completely Sealing the Barrier.

Using boats and divers one could perform the other work to completely seal the levees.
I am confident that there are  hundred of companies that could do that work in a day.

If only  President Bush to would ask them.

2.3.1 Speed of Deployment

2.3.2  Time to Place the I-beams.
This approach is rapid - I estimate that 4 helicopters  can  place  10 I-beams in 1 hour.  This would cover a breach  100 feet.  So in 16 hours one could have  a breach
of 1600 ft staked with I-beams.

2.2.3  Time to place the Plates.
I estimate that a team of 20 men and 4 helicopters could place  four  10 x 20 ft.  plates in 1 hour.  So one could seal about breach of  80 feet in 1 hour.
So in 16 hours one could seal  1200 ft.
From the TV pictures this would solve the  breach and  reduce the flow to 1%.



2.4 Dumping the area dry.

The next task so to pump out the area.

2.4.1 Using Commercial Pumps.

This can be done with  commercial pumps.  Many construction sites have pumps which can be
rented.

2.4.2.   Powering the Pumps.
Some run on  Gasoline or Diesel oil. Many others are electrically driven.  
The helicopters can fly in electrical generators to operate the electric pumps.

One can run thousands of pumps and this will empty the flooded parts of  the city quickly.

2.4.3 Restoring the Electrical Grid.
Obviously, if the power companies get electrical power  restored to the city this will allow  electrical pumps to be used.

Time is of the essence!

3.   Stop the health risks.


3.1. Stopping Disease.
It is essential to get the dead bodies sealed to stop disease.  This is where
plastic  body bags would provide an quick solution.  the goal is to provide care
for the living  and injured .and stop the spread of disease.
 
3.2 Supplying Water and Food.
Supplying bottle water and food is the next  task.  Large companies like  Coke
can supply all the bottled water required.

Other large companies can supply the food needed.  Alternatively,  the US Army/Navy/ Airforce have stockpiles of rations that can be used if needed.



3.3  Shelter
For shelter - many organizations have the capability to create tent camps.
The current delays do not look good.   There should have been few deaths.
Every death is a red flag that the U.S. has problems.  


4. Risks
4.1  What about risk from the shooting?

I am sure that the shooting will stop when the people come to do the repairs.
In any case the U.S. army and National Guard have the training to stop the shooting.






5.  Preventing this from happening again.
When all the breaches have been stopped one can use this  barrier as a framework and build a cement  cladding on the outer face.

6. Measuring Success.
Engineering is a measurement based profession.
Timing is important.

The right task performed too late is the wrong task!

I suggest that a good measure of the effectiveness of the effort
is by looking at indicators.

I suggest that there are some useful indicators:-


1. Death toll after 1, 5, 10, 15, 20 , 30, 60, 90 days.
2. Number of days until barrier is completed.
3. Number of days till water level drops 1 feet.
3. Number of days till water level drops 2, 3,4,5 , 6, 8 , 10, 12 ,14 ,15 ,20  feet, completely dry.
4. Number of days till power is restored to pumps. 10%, 20%, 50% 80%, 100% of city.
7. Number of days till health risk due to sewage etc is reduced to  pre-flood level.
8. Number of days till phone service is back to normal.
9. Number of day till water is restored to 10%, 20 ... 100%.
One can measure the old water consumption levels and calculate the water flow.
(Assuming that noone cheats by pumping water directly into the sewer to pretend that
all the service has been restored! By looking at the hourly water demand one will be able
detect such cheating.)
10. Number of days until all streets are open for traffic.
11. Number of days till tourists  return.  (Sales of toilet rolls and Coke etc.
can be used as indicators of the return to the old level of business).
12. Electricity power consumption can be used to measure the adjustment to normal.

(President  Bush can use these to show what a good job he has done at handling this crisis.)

If you think that this should be forwarded to someone who can help, please do so.

Any comments  and suggestions are welcome.