Is this the end of the United Kingdom?
Ealrier today a little known politican from Wales, a man few outside of Wales or the political anorak community (like myself) knows who he is, was elected Deputy First Minister of the Welsh Assembley. His name is Ieuan Wyn Jones. You may ask, the Welsh assembley? It's not even a parliament, surely that doesn't matter.
It's true to say this will little impact on your everyday lives, or indeed, given how little power the Welsh Assembley has, a huge affect on the everyday lives of even the people of Wales. This election however is the start of a trend that began when devolution was first introduced. in 1997 Tony Blair's newly elected Governemnt promised a Scottish Parliament, a Welsh assembley and a Northern Ireland assembley. All these were delivered.
Blair and Labour argued that for years the Scots and Welsh, who had voted Labour in election after election, still got a Tory Minsiter who they had not voted for running their affairs. At that point they did not know they would become a three term Govenrment, so to guard against this in the future devolution would ensure key decisions in the other nations of the United Kingdom would be made by the devolved bodies. Some in Labour also took for granted that they would have big majorities in Scotland and Wales, ensuring their hold on power there.
The Tories were opposed to this (except in Northern Ireland which they saw as a special case), arguing it would lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. The Nationlist parties in Scotland and Wales agreed, and obviously supported the proposals seeing them as a trojen horse to independence.
Referendums were won and the bodies were eventually set-up. One promise at least you can't accuse Blair of breaking, but should he have done? At the time the Scottish Parliament referendum was won the then defense secretary George Robertson stated the setting up of the Scottish Parliament killed the argument 'dead.' The Nationalists scoffed. 10 years on, where are we now?
In Northern Ireland things are slighly different. Nationalists and Republicans there don't want Northern Ireland independence of course, but want the province they call 'Ulster' to be under the rule of Dublin. Their opponents, the unionists support the union and Northern Ireland's place in it. In the early days of Northern Ireland devolution, the moderate Ulster Unionsist Party and SDLP from the Nationalist side dominated, the hard line Democratic Unionists and their Republican counterparts Sinn Fain (who many argue have links with the IRA) were very much in the background. Today Ian Paisley of the Democratic Unionists is the leader of the assembley, his deputy is Martin McGuiniss.
McGuiniss leads Sinn Fain in the assembley. With the IRA effectively dispanded, Sinn Fain have one aim, a united Ireland. As part of the devolution package it has been agreed a referendum will be held once a generation, and if a majority want it, Ulster will return to Dublin. Demographics suggest the nationlist/republican side of the argument, currently around 46%, could soon become the majority, this means McGuiniss, the Sinn Fain Presindent Jerry Adams and company, have not only grown as a result of devolution, they may not be far off getting what they want.
Across the sea in Scotland there is another story of Nationalist gains. In the recent Scottish Parliament election the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP for short) became the biggest party for the first time. The results break down also suggest that if the wind is against Labour next time, there is scope for a new series of SNP gains at the next election too. There are as many as 16 constituencies where if Tory or Lib Dem voters can be pursuaded to tactically vote against Labour, the SNP could win the seat next time.
The SNP leader Alex Salmond does not have an overall majority, but has for the first time been elected First Minister of Scotland. If his support grows further, he could soon be in a position to push for an independence referendum. It may take one more election for him to be in this position, it may even take two, but Salmond and his party are not going away and support for them is growing. The SNP have unquestionably benefitted from devolution, the independence argument is far from 'dead.'
That brings me back to Mr Wyn Jones. He is the leader of Plaid Cymru (Welsh for 'The Party of Wales') They are the Welsh Nationalists. In his election as Deputy first minister, Mr Wyn Jones has negotiated a refurnedum to give the Welsh assembley offical law making powers, effectively making it a parliament. Not only this, but Labour as part of the agreement are committed to supporting this. If the pattern with Scotland having a Parliament is anything to go by, this is a great opportunity for Plaid Cymru.
This is little evidence for support for Welsh independence now, but today's election of Mr Wyn Jones may be the first step for Wales to follow Scotland down the same path. It also means all three devolved bodies have people commited to the end of the United Kingdom as leader or deputy leader of the body. Nothing will happen overnight, but this could be the beginning of the end for the United kingdom. It is not clear what will stop the path towards this, maybe nothing can. So if in five, ten, twenty, event thirty or forty years time, Northern Ireland is under Dublin rule, Scotland and Wales are independent and the United Kingdom no longer exists, remember the day I introduced you Ieuan Wyn Jones, he may be far more significant than you may have first thought.
