The Moon of Liberty

With all eyes on the United States, the effect this election could have on the Global economy and international affairs of state in general, why would anybody care about a Scottish place called Glenrothes? Well, believe it or not, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown most certainly does. If you have any interest at all in the future direction of UK politics, so should you.

On Thursday Glenrothes goes to the polls in Gordon Brown's best opportunity to win an election yet. So far, in nationwide local elections, and bye elections in Dunfirmline, Glasgow, Henley On Thames and Crewe, as well as the Mayor of London election, he has failed. In every serious election with national significance since he became Prime Minister, Labour under his leadership has taken a hiding in all of them, so far he is 0-6.

But our Prime Minister has, if you believe the press, been doing better recently. In a bizarre twist, the credit crisis which many put a strong case that he has to take a huge responsibility for, has given him the chance to look like he is leading, at home and internationally, while the opposition parties have no means to act, so either back Brown and strengthen him further, or criticise and run the risk of playing petty politics while real people are struggling. In addition his bringing back of Peter Mandleson and Alaistair Campbell has added expereince, and in Campbell's case a new discipline to the Labour cause. There was a brief Brown bounce in the polls, there is some evidence that is going away now though. There is still a feeling Brown has some momentum at the moment though. Glenrothes can either move that feeling forward, or blow it apart. If Brown is to take an election victory it surely is now.

This is a strange election for Conservative leader David Cameron. Glenrothes has no evidence of Tory support. The challengers to Labour will be Alex Salmond and his Tartan Army of Scottish nationalists. For Cameron an SNP win is the result that matters, he can't say this of course, but all he can do isbe around to annoy the Government and hope the SNP take the victory, which will be an unofficial victory for him by default.

The SNP challenge is huge. at the last General election here Labour has over 50% of the vote, and a 10000+ majority. This means if the SNP managed to squeeze every vote from other parties not voting Labour, they would still lose assuming the Labour vote held up. Of course, there is the catch, the Labour vote won't hold up, and that is why the SNP are convinced they have a chance.

In addition the SNP overturned a bigger majority in Glasgow a few short months ago. This however is where Brown's momentum comes in, if it's real, Labour hold the seat, if not, the SNP can do it again. A loss would be even more embarrassing for Brown as this is right on his doorstep. Glenrothes neighbours Brown's Cowdenbeath constituency. Strenghthened by recent events, on home turf, and a constituency that has consistently voted Labour for many years. a winning forumlar surely?

This is a town, whatever happens on Thursday, is Labour in it's heart. These people longed for a sustained period of Labour Government through the Thatcher and Major years, consistently vote Labour in big numbers, share the very values of Brown and his Scottish Labour ideals. If these people judge 11 years of the Labour Governemtn they yearned for as a complete waste of time by voting SNP on Thursday, what is left for Brown? If Brown can't win an election here in the best circumstances he has enjoyed for a long time, where on earth can he win one?

So the 'other election' on Thursday in Glenrothes matters. Will he become the anti egghead 'whose losing streak continues, doing what comes natrually.' Or can he take a victory and sustain his recent momentum that may just change the dynamics as we move towards the next General Election, putting the Conservative's and David Cameron in particular, right on the back foot?