Autumn TV is in full swing, and between Strictly Come Dancing and the X Factor Saturday nights will be dominated by these two particular shows. At some point I may be inclined to write about Strictly Come dancing, but now I'm going to concentrate on the X factor, and the dilemma facing Simon Cowell this year in particular.
The X Faxtor is of course the successor to Pop Idol, the original show to find a star of the future. These shows, despite their huge audiences have had mixed success. Pop Idol scored one out of two, Will Young still sells plenty of singles and albums today, the original Pop Idol in the never to be forgotten contest head to head with Gareth Gates. The the following year came the flop, Michelle McManus was the one hit wonder Simon Cowell and BMG records must have feared a second series would create. Michelle McManus proved all winning gives you is one guaranteed number one, but if you don't have the appeal, nothing more than that.
The X Factor was the revamped version, created to also include groups, although a group has not to date ever won, and probably won't either. It also played to the egos allowing the judges to mentor a category and become competative between themselves. The first series was the worst for this, Simon Cowell's determination to defeat fellow judge Louis Walsh in series one landed him with Steve Brookstein, when G4, the group mentored by Walsh, should have won. Brookstein, like McManus, had one hit, then fell away into obscurity, while G4 did reasonably well, and sold more albums than Brookstien could have dreamed of.
In series two Cowell realised he needed a star. He was given a weak group category anyway, Louis Walsh on the other hand had Shane Ward, a potential star. When he won the final Cowell admitted that while he hated to lose to Louis, the public had got it right. When marketed well Ward can still sell plenty today. The following year public got it right again did again, Cowell had landed the category with Leona Lewis, one of the biggest pop stars in the world today, including in the United States.
So to last year, and the big reason Simon has a huge dilemma this year too. Last year was not a strong year for the show. There was no obvious 'star.' Cowell tried to exploit this to push his cheesy, fun act 'Same Difference' to victory. He failed to pull this off in the process left the one man who could have made Cowell some serious money and become a different kind of star, all be it in the opera style of music rather than in the pop world, Ryddian, high and dry, leaving the field open for the OK, cute but nothing special Leon Jackson from Scotland to take the crown. It was clear he would struggle to sell outside of Scotland however, which was proved with a number 1 single that did not sell half as many as either Shane Ward or Leona Lewis before him.
Yesterday any resonance of hope Leon could turn into a big star died when his new single, with the full backing of a performance in the safety of the X Factor studio, flopped to number 3 in the charts, being beaten to the number one spot by Pink and a spoof rip off of the very X Factor concept Leon was supposed to benefit from. Jackson's career is effectively over in terms of him making it big, surely the X Factor this year needs another star?
Which is why Cowell has a big problem. He no doubt would love to win the show again, and he could. He has the boys category, Austin and Scott both will go down well with the girls, and 16 year old Eoghan from Ireland has a very good voice, and looks very sweet on stage. So yes, Simon could find a winner from that lot. Out of those three however, are there really any starts, there is no evidence of a Shane Ward type standout performer. The girls mentored by new girl Judge Cheryl Cole however, have 3 huge potential stars. Alexandra has enetered before, did not quite make the finals then, and has come back better than ever, an outstanding singer. Laura White has huge charisma and a big voice on stage, and Diana Vickers, Cheryl's other contestant, seems to be able to take any style of song and make it totally unique.
Cowell's boys can still pull it off, but can he sell any of them beyond the fact they may be cute to young girls. That is not enough in itself to make it big. This is particularly an issue given it is Eoghan who appears to be Simon's best chance. He can sing, he looks sweet, but like Leon outside of Scotland, could they sell him outside of Ireland? The stars are amongst the girls this year, much as it may hurt Cowell to lose this year, he needs to decide if he can afford another winner of the cute factor who flops? or will he allow the girls to fight it out to see who emerges as the X factor, and has a huge future ahead of them to boot. Success of the show, an artists career and your companies success, or your ego and short term desire to win the show? That is Simon Cowell's dilemma this year.