After a break from the blog I begin with a look at the facinating picture in Brtiish politics. Over the last few weeks we have seen the emergence of Prime Minister Brown. He has claimed to be the end of spin over substance, and yet, the opposite appears to be true. During the 'honeymoon', which is all about spin and presentations, Brown has done exceptionally well. Now we are getting back to substance as the honeymoon ends, his lead is starting to evaporate and his Conservtive opponents are back in the game.
Today poll reports are suggesting the gap has narrowed to as close to all square as possible. One poll even has it all square, another that gave Brown a 10 point lead only a few weeks ago now had it cut to three. It is being reported tonight that a third poll to be published tomorrow has a one point Labour lead. Taking margin for error into account, and the ability of polling data to consistantly over estimate the Labour position, we are effectively all square with everything to play for.
The interesting thing about what we are seeing now is that it coincides with a dominance of a key area of politics in which Brown is widely considered strong and Cameron weak, notably that of policy. If Cameron's position on family policy porved a disaster, which it did, he has recovered the ground on tax and crime. His attack over prison policy and early release schemes, the ambitous plans in John Redwood's report to cut red-tape for businesses and cut tax have all gone down well, despite the BBC's attempts to rubbish the Redwood report in a manner they had to apologise for.
In addition, you only have to look at the editorial line of the Sun newspaper to know Brown has many problems. They have attacked Brown day by day, on Europe, on immigration, on tax, on the economy, on crime and disorder, on education, on hospitals. Day after day the editorial line of the UK's leading paper has been a drip, drip, drip attack. Todays polling news suggests this is having a major effect, Brown's problem is that it will be difficult to stop them doing it.
So we go into the conferences and it is truely game on. Over the next few weeks we will see the true opening salvos of the next general election. It could still go either. Browns support for the EU treaty is very unpopular, and he has much to do in reassuring pepople on crime after recent high profile murders. in the measures in the report on family policy Cameron has many pitfalls too, he also has to resist the temptation to vere too much to the right, while mainitaining enough of the polcies that will keep traditional Tories and the likes of the Sun and the Mail on board, without scaring the horses.
This summer we have seen Cameron, who has looked like a winner from day one, wobble, now we are seeing Prime Minister Brown wobble for the first time too. In a long campaign you get wobbles. Everyone from Bill Clinton to Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair had them. You may not remember them, thats because in the end they are forgotten if you are a winner. You may remember more the wobbles of the likes of Neil Kinnock and William Hague, beacuse they are only remembered if you are a loser. When it comes to Brown verses Cameron, this conference season may give us the first real indication of which one of these formidable operators is a winner.
